Economists: Large Probability Of Negative Growth In GDP In The First Quarter
All economists expect GDP growth to slow in 2020. In the short-term, the economy will be more affected. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter will drop sharply to a negative number, with an average forecast of -6.48%. The new coronary pneumonia epidemic has a huge impact on the Chinese economy. In this survey, 20 chief economists predicted the GDP growth rate in 2020, and they significantly lowered the expected average from 5.96% at the end of 2019 to 2.87%. All economists expect GDP growth to slow in 2020. In the short-term, the economy will be more affected. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter will drop sharply to a negative number, with an average forecast of -6.48%. In April 2020, "Confidence Index of Chief Economist of First Financial" was 47.81, higher than last month, but still lower than the 50 gloom line. Economists expect that the new crown virus will still bring a greater impact on our economy in the next month Big shock. March economic data recovered from February, but still significantly lower than the same period last year. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI and PPI was lower than last month. The investment and consumption data improved but remained negative, and the trade data will change from deficit to surplus. Economists believe that positive policies will not be absent in the future, and new loans, total social financing and M2 growth in March have increased significantly year-on-year. Four economists expect the benchmark deposit rate to be lowered in the next month. There are 17 people who expect the central bank to cut the one-year LPR rate in April, and 2 economists expect the deposit reserve ratio to be lowered in April. They believe that the uncertainty caused by the epidemic is still there, and lowered the expectation of the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar at the end of the year from 6.98 at the end of last month to 7.