Japanese Media Observation: The World Economy Is Increasingly Dependent On China's Supply Chain

"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported on November 29 that the pattern of the world economy "depending on China" became more and more obvious. US President Trump's policy of dividing China and the logistics stagnation caused by the new crown epidemic once became an opportunity to get rid of China's supply chain. However, the current share of China's exports in the exports of the world's major countries has risen again, surpassing the highest in history. Some believe that the recently signed "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) will further increase China's influence. According to reports, China's products with a higher share of exports are increasing. Analyzing the data of 3,800 commodities collected by the International Trade Center, it is found that in 2019, China accounted for more than 50% of the total of 320 commodities, close to 10%, which is an increase from 61 when China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 More than 4 times. Since Trump was elected President of the United States, China's exports have encountered bottlenecks due to the impact of the US-China trade war, but they have risen again since 2019. The export share of daily necessities such as small computers (66%), air conditioners (57%) and sanitary ware (80%) remained at a relatively high level. China has also explored the needs of emerging countries in Asia and Africa. Not only LCD components, but also the export share of jackets, irons, blenders, etc., exceeded 50% for the first time in 2019. The report pointed out that since 2020, China's export share of products has further expanded. Judging from the export data of OECD countries and China, China’s share stopped growing from January to March when the new crown epidemic first started, but it rose again after it took the lead in containing the epidemic. After April, it will increase by more than 20%. The report believes that the expansion of the free trade zone is estimated to become a major factor in increasing dependence on China. According to data from the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States, the effectiveness of RCEP's tariff cuts will increase global exports by about US$500 billion in 2030 over the current period, and half of it will fall into China's hands. The Institute believes that due to the increasing interdependence in the Asian supply chain, China will benefit the most.