China's Economic Announced In The First Half Of The Year: GDP Increased By 6.3% Year-on-year

The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 15th, preliminary accounting, the gross domestic product in the first half of the year was 450.933 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 6.3%. In the quarter, the first quarter increased by 6.4% year-on-year and the second quarter increased by 6.2%. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 2,230.7 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year; the added value of the secondary industry was 179.984 billion yuan, up 5.8%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 2,477.4 billion yuan, up 7.0%.


First, the agricultural production situation is good, and the summer grain is harvested again.


In the first half of the year, the added value of the planting industry increased by 3.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from the first quarter. The total output of summer grain in the country was 141.74 million tons, an increase of 2.93 million tons over the previous year, an increase of 2.1%, which was the same as the highest in history (2017). The agricultural planting structure continued to be optimized, and the area planted with cotton and soybeans increased. In the first half of the year, poultry egg production increased by 3.6% year-on-year, milk production increased by 1.7%; pig, beef, poultry and meat production was 39.11 million tons, down by 2.1%. Among them, beef, lamb and poultry production increased by 2.4%, 1.5% and 5.6 respectively. %, pork production fell by 5.5%.


Second, industrial production is basically stable, and the proportion of high-tech manufacturing industry is increasing.


In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from the first quarter. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.3 percentage points from May and by 0.68% from the previous month. In the first half of the year, depending on the type of economy, the value-added of state-owned holding companies increased by 5.0% year-on-year, joint-stock enterprises increased by 7.3%, and foreign-invested enterprises of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 1.4%. In terms of three categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 3.5% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.4%, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries increased by 7.3%. The added value of industrial strategic emerging industries increased by 7.7% year-on-year, faster than the above-scale industries by 1.7 percentage points. The added value of high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.0% year-on-year, 3.0 percentage points faster than the above-scale industries, accounting for 13.8% of all industries above designated size, up 0.8 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 34.6% and 20.1% respectively.


From January to May, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2.379 trillion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year. The decline was 1.1 percentage points lower than that in January-April; among them, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit growth of 1.1% in April. It was down 3.7% year-on-year. The operating profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.72%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first four months.


Third, the service industry is growing rapidly, and the modern service industry is developing better.


In the first half of the year, the service industry continued to maintain a good momentum of development. Information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transportation, warehousing and postal services, the added value of the financial industry increased by 20.6%, 7.8%, 7.3% and 7.3%, respectively, faster than the third Industry 13.6, 0.8, 0.3 and 0.3 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the national service industry production index increased by 7.3% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage point from the first quarter; of which, it increased by 7.1% in June, 0.1 percentage points faster than that in May. In June, the service industry business activity index was 53.4%, and continued to remain above the line of glory. The service industry's business activity expectation index is 60.3%, which is at a relatively high level.


From January to May, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points faster than that of January-April. Among them, the operating income of strategic emerging service industry, high-tech service industry and technology service industry increased by 12.5 respectively. %, 12.3% and 12.0%, respectively, faster than the full-scale service industry 2.4, 2.2 and 1.9 percentage points, maintaining rapid growth.


Fourth, the market sales have risen steadily, and the growth rate and proportion of online retail sales continue to increase.


In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 195.21 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 338.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and a month-on-month increase of 0.96%. In the first half of the year, according to the location of the business unit, the retail sales of urban consumer goods was 1,669.2 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year; the retail sales of rural consumer goods was 2.8286 trillion yuan, up 9.1%. According to the type of consumption, the catering revenue was 2,127.9 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4%; the retail sales of goods was 173,930 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3%. The sales of consumption upgraded goods grew rapidly. The cosmetics category above the designated size increased by 13.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was faster than the total retail sales of consumer goods by 4.8 percentage points.


In the first half of the year, the national online retail sales amounted to 4,816.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points over the first quarter. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 3.8165 billion yuan, up 21.6%, accounting for 19.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, up 1.4 percentage points from the first quarter.


V. Investment growth is basically stable, and high-tech industry investment is growing rapidly.


In the first half of the year, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. The growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in January-May and 0.5 percentage points lower than the first quarter. Among them, private investment was 1,088.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%. In terms of industries, investment in the primary industry fell by 0.6%; investment in the secondary industry increased by 2.9%, of which manufacturing investment increased by 3.0%; investment in the tertiary industry increased by 7.4%, of which infrastructure investment increased by 4.1%. High-tech manufacturing investment increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 4.6 percentage points faster than total investment; high-tech service industry investment increased by 13.5%, and the growth rate was 7.7 percentage points faster than the total investment. From a ring comparison, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 0.44% in June.


In the first half of the year, the national real estate development investment was 6.1609 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.9 percentage points from the first quarter. The sales area of commercial housing in the country was 757.86 million square meters, down 1.8% year-on-year; the sales of commercial housing in the country was 705.68 billion yuan, up 5.6%, and the growth rate was the same as that in the first quarter.


6. The growth rate of import and export increased slightly, and the trade structure continued to optimize.


In the first half of the year, the total import and export volume of goods was 1,466.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. Among them, exports were 795.21 billion yuan, up 6.1%; imports were 675.55 billion yuan, up 1.4%. The import and export offset, with a surplus of 1,236.6 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6%. The structure of trade pattern was further optimized. The import and export of general trade increased by 5.5%, accounting for 59.9% of the total import and export volume, up by 0.9 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; the export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.3%, accounting for 58.2% of the total export value. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 11.0%, accounting for 41.7% of the total import and export volume, an increase of 2.7 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. In June, the total volume of imports and exports was 2561.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Among them, exports were 1,453.5 billion yuan, up 6.1%; imports were 110.83 billion yuan, down 0.4%.


In the first half of the year, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.8361 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. In June, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 105.55 billion yuan, an increase of 1.9%, and the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points faster than that in May.


7. The consumer price rise is moderate, and the prices of industrial producers are basically stable.


In the first half of the year, the national consumer price rose by 2.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the first quarter. Among them, both urban and rural areas rose by 2.2%. In terms of categories, food and tobacco prices rose by 3.9% year-on-year, clothing rose by 1.8%, housing rose by 2.0%, household goods and services rose by 1.1%, transportation and communications fell by 1.0%, education, culture and entertainment rose by 2.5%, and health care rose by 2.6. %, other supplies and services rose 2.2%. In the price of food, tobacco and alcohol, the price of food rose by 0.5%, the price of pork rose by 7.7%, and the price of fresh vegetables rose by 9.2%. After deducting food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by 1.8% year-on-year, a drop of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter. In June, the national consumer price rose by 2.7% year-on-year, the same as last month; the chain fell by 0.1%.


In the first half of the year, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 0.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the first quarter. In June, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide were flat year-on-year, down 0.3% from the previous month. In the first half of the year, the purchase price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 0.1% year-on-year, and the increase was the same as that in the first quarter. In June, the national industrial producer purchase price decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-on-quarter.


8. The employment situation is generally stable, and the number of rural migrant workers continues to increase.


In the first half of the year, 7.73 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide, and 67% of the annual target tasks were completed. In June, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the unemployment rate of the 25-59 year old population survey was 4.6%, which was lower than the national urban survey unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. The unemployment rate surveyed in 31 major cities and towns was 5.0%, which was the same as last month. In June, the average weekly working hours of national enterprise employees was 45.7 hours. At the end of the second quarter, the total number of migrant workers in rural areas was 182.48 million, an increase of 2.26 million over the same period of the previous year, an increase of 1.3%, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.


9. Residents’ income growth is faster than economic growth, and urban-rural income ratio continues to shrink.


In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 15,294 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.8% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the first quarter; the actual increase of 6.5% after deducting the price factor was 0.2 percentage points higher than the economic growth rate. According to the permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 21,342 yuan, an actual increase of 5.7%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 7,778 yuan, an actual increase of 6.6%. The per capita disposable income ratio of urban and rural residents was 2.74, which was 0.03 less than the same period of the previous year. The median per capita disposable income of the national residents was 13,281 yuan, a nominal increase of 9.0% year-on-year.


X. The structural reform of the supply side has been further advanced and the economic structure has been continuously optimized.


The results of “three to one, one drop and one supplement” were consolidated. In the second quarter, the national industrial capacity utilization rate was 76.4%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the first quarter and 1 percentage point higher than the average since 2013. Among them, non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting The capacity utilization rate of the rolling and processing industries increased by 3.4, 1.7 and 1.7 percentage points respectively compared with the first quarter. At the end of June, the sales area of commercial housing in the country was 50.162 million square meters, a decrease of 7.66 million square meters from the end of last month, down 8.9% from the same period of the previous year. At the end of May, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.8%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. In the first half of the year, investment in short-board sectors such as ecological protection and environmental protection, education and so on increased by 48.0% and 18.9% respectively, which was 42.2 and 13.1 percentage points faster than the total investment.


The three major battles continued to advance. At the end of May, the national local government debt balance was 1989.53 billion yuan, which was controlled within the limits approved by the National People's Congress. Accurate poverty alleviation and effective effect, the per capita disposable income of rural residents in poverty-stricken areas maintained rapid growth. The effectiveness of pollution prevention and control continues to show. According to preliminary calculations, in the first half of the year, the proportion of clean energy consumption such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power accounted for 1.6 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, and the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 2.7%.


The economic structure continues to be optimized. In the first half of the year, the added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 54.9% of GDP, 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year and 15.0 percentage points higher than the secondary industry; the contribution rate of tertiary industry growth to GDP growth 60.3%, higher than the second industry by 23.2 percentage points; strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries in above-scale industries maintained rapid growth. The contribution of final consumer spending growth to economic growth was 60.1%. Among the final consumption expenditures of all residents, service consumption accounted for 49.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. A series of major regional strategies such as the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Dawan District, and the Yangtze River Delta integration have been steadily advanced, and a new pattern of east-west, north-south linkage development is taking shape.


In general, the national economy operated in a reasonable range in the first half of the year, continuing the overall stable, steady and progressive development trend. However, we must also see that the current domestic and international economic situation is still complicated and severe, global economic growth has slowed down, external instability and uncertainties have increased, and the problem of insufficient domestic development imbalance is still prominent, and the economy is facing new downward pressure. In the next step, we should take Xi Jinping's new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics as the guide, conscientiously implement the decision-making arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the general tone of steady progress, and adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, in accordance with high-quality development. It is required to deepen reform and opening up, optimize the business environment, promote independent innovation in key areas, fully mobilize the polarity of all parties, and pay close attention to the implementation of the "six stable" policy to promote steady and healthy economic development.


Note


(1) The gross domestic product, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size and the growth rate of its classified items are calculated at comparable prices, which is the actual growth rate; other indicators, unless otherwise specified, are calculated at the current price as the nominal growth rate.


(2) According to the seasonal adjustment model, the results of automatic correction will be revised for the growth rate of GDP, industrial added value above designated size, fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) and total retail sales of social consumer goods in the past year. The revised results and the second quarter GDP of 2019 and the other indicators of June 2019 are as follows:


The growth rate of GDP in each quarter of 2018 and the first quarter and second quarter of 2019 was 1.5%, 1.7%, 1.6%, 1.5%, 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.


(3) The statistical scope of industrial enterprises above designated size is an industrial enterprise with an annual main business income of 20 million yuan or more. Due to the annual changes in the scope of industrial enterprises above designated size, in order to ensure that the data for this year is comparable with that of the previous year, the number of simultaneous periods used to calculate the growth rate of various indicators such as product output is as consistent as possible with the current statistical range of the enterprise, and the previous year. There are discrepancies in the published data. The main reasons: First, the scope of statistical units has changed. Some enterprises have reached the scale of investigation every year, and some enterprises have withdrawn from the scope of investigation due to the smaller scale, as well as the impact of new production enterprises, bankruptcy, and investment (hanging) enterprises. Second, the output data of some enterprise group (company) products has repeated statistical phenomena across regions. According to the special survey, the repeated production of the enterprise group (company) across regions has been reduced.


(4) Service industry production index refers to the output change of the service industry reporting period relative to the base period after the price factor is removed.


(5) The total retail sales of social consumer goods is: legal person enterprises, industrial activity units and self-employed persons engaged in commodity retail activities or providing catering services. Among them, the units above designated size refer to the main business of the year.